Following last weeks qualification draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, it is largely assumed the path Canada will have to take. No doubt it will be a tough road, but which teams will we have to face in the upcoming year? The only certainty is the St. Vincent & Grenadines squad in a home & home series in June.
They may be just a small island nation with only four players playing in a league most of us have ever heard of, but at the same time they are the only nation to receive a bye in the first round. Although they failed at the same stage last time around to Nicaragua, they held a draw in the first leg, and had an opportunity on home soil to see them through to the semifinal round.
Looking to more recent results shows an even greater improvement in the island squad. The 2007 Caribbean Nations Cup was one of two parts to the Gold Cup qualifying (the other being the UNCAF nations cup for continental Central America). In that tournament SV&G was in the same group as past World Cup qualifiers Jamaica, advancing to the second round over the Jamaicans in large part to a 2-1 victory away, at the National Stadium in Kingston. It took a one-goal defeat to eventual Gold Cup semi-finalists Guadeloupe, for SV&G to miss out on the big continental tournament by a single point. Forward Shandel Samuel (no relation to Lion-heart Colin) led the Island championships with 10 goals in 9 games, and will certainly make the backline of Canada earn their keep.
Assuming Canada advance through that stage to the third round (first group stage), the probable teams they will have to face is Mexico, Jamaica and Honduras.
The most daunting potential opponent is Mexico, who must defeat either St. Kitts & Nevis or Belize to be in the third round. St. Kitts and Nevis failed to advance past the first round of the aforementioned Caribbean Nations cup. While at the same stage four years ago, they upset Barbados before being blown out in the first group stage, including 5-0 and 8-0 losses to Mexico, whom they may yet again face. As for Belize, they fell in the first round last world cup attempt to the Canadians, followed by placing dead last at the UNCAF Nations Cup this summer, being only one of two teams in that tournament to miss out on the Gold Cup. As the Mexicans have qualified for 13 of 18 World Cups and are seven time Gold Cup Champions, is safe to say they will make it to the Group Stage.
The Jamaican team had a disappointing Caribbean Nations Cup, as was previously mentioned, when they failed to advance past the first round. In qualifications for last World Cup, they begun with a 4-1 aggregate win over Haiti, but were eliminated in the second round by a single point. The challengers for the Reggae Boyz are Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands. The BVI were steadfastly knocked out by a 10-0 aggregate in the first round four years ago, while withdrawing from Gold Cup qualifying last year. The Bahamas were also defeated four years in the first round, courtesy of a 4-2 aggregate loss to Dominica. In the more recent Gold Cup qualifying, they reached the second group stage, but went pointless the rest of the Caribbean island championships.
The third and final anticipated group stage squad is Honduras. The side that famously drew with Spain and Northern Ireland in their single World Cup appearance in 1982 has yet to be back. They began the last campaign with a 6-1 aggregate victory over the Netherlands Antilles, and were off to the group stage that included Canada (and a certain barrage of officiating errors, but that’s for another time). They missed out on the final stage by three points, drawing with the Canadians 1-1 in both matches. Los Catrachos are routinely in the Gold Cup, finishing fifth in the UNCAF Nations cup to reach the latest edition. While there they finished atop their group that featured the same Mexican team they could potentially be facing again. Any challenge for that spot will come from either baseball powerhouses Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico. The Dominican Republic showed promise in the Caribbean Nations Cup, reaching the final group stage, however they withdrew shortly after. Their last World Cup attempt was cut short in the preliminary round by eventual qualifiers Trinidad and Tobago. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico did not enter into qualifying for either the Gold Cup or World Cup, any indication of their results would be from the 2005 Caribbean Nations Cup where they registered a single point in a draw with Suriname and were eliminated in the first round.
It has been said many times in the past week alone that Canada have the most difficult path to reach the Bafan-Bafana hosted tournament in over 2 years time. If they want qualify though, these are the teams they must defeat (and have previously done so), simply to reach the final group stage. Last years Gold Cup results (and near results) gave hope that the impossible is actually attainable for this team. However, much like last attempt at the World Cup, if they don’t prove themselves early on, it will be a relaxing summer in 2010.
